Dr. Ari Betof (EdD) is a longtime consulting presence in the Boston area who provides roadmaps toward expanding organizational sustainability and increasing productivity. In his Medium piece “The Seduction of False Optimism,” Dr. Ari Betof laid out a number of problems that can arise when positive thinking is carried to the point where it glosses over fundamental miscalculations.

One common issue is that positive numbers, which reflect specific current circumstances, tend to be extrapolated into future planning in ways that may not reflect actual trends. An example is a school that has taken up a practice of placing early-cycle admission numbers within board reports, based on indicators such as interviews, inquiries, and campus visits. Unfortunately, these do not always translate into the actual tuition revenue or enrollment numbers that emerge. 

In addition, lack of statistically valid predictive indicators can cause downstream impacts. In cases where numbers are positive but not predictive, fundamental shortcomings in data can be glossed over for an extended period of time. This can leadsto budget allocation decisions that can have “brutal” downstream consequences when trends take an unexpected turn for the worse.